It appears that evidently every time Apple’s long-anticipated AR/VR mixed-reality headset seems to get nearer to actuality, we hear about new roadblocks. The product’s improvement regularly appears as if it’s taking one step ahead after which two steps again.
Whereas there’s been a whole lot of buzz these days about the potential of the headset making its debut on June 5 at this 12 months’s Worldwide Builders Convention (WWDC), a brand new report by respected analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is casting some doubt on whether or not that may occur in spite of everything.
As traditional, Kuo doesn’t have any perception into the pondering inside Apple’s government ranks and even its design groups, however what he does know is Apple’s provide chain, and people people have advised him that the mass manufacturing schedule for meeting of the brand new headset has been pushed again “by one other 1-2 months,” putting it in “mid-to-late 3Q23.
That’s not essentially a big delay, and it strains up with different experiences that recommended that the headset wouldn’t ship till nearer to the tip of 2023 anyway — or probably even into early 2024. Technically talking, the “3Q23” Kuo is talking of would run from July to September, so even when the headset started mass manufacturing on the finish of that quarter, there would nonetheless be ample time for it to hit the cabinets in time for Christmas. Not that it’s going to be a lot of a stocking stuffer with an anticipated $3,000 price ticket.
Nonetheless, in a tweet earlier today, Kuo additionally indicated that Apple isn’t optimistic that the headset announcement will recreate the incredible sort of “iPhone second” that some expect. In consequence, it could resolve to skip its look at WWDC, saving it for an additional occasion later within the 12 months, maybe when situations are extra favorable.
The primary considerations for Apple not being very optimistic concerning the market suggestions to the AR/MR headset announcement embrace the financial downturn, compromises on some {hardware} specs for mass manufacturing (equivalent to weight), the readiness of the ecosystem and purposes, a excessive promoting worth (USD 3,000-4,000 and even larger), and many others.
Ming-Chi Kuo
Nonetheless, it doesn’t seem that Apple’s executives are underneath any illusions about how the headset might be obtained. A report earlier this week revealed skepticism inside Apple’s ranks about whether or not the brand new headset is “an answer looking for an issue.” Apple expects it can face an uphill battle in attempting to persuade potential prospects of the worth of the brand new know-how. Nonetheless, it has to begin someplace and hopes the first-generation product will pave the way in which for extra improvements that may come down the street.
Will Apple’s Headset Debut at WWDC?
There’s loads of precedent for Apple saying merchandise months earlier than they ship — particularly these in completely new classes. The unique iPhone was launched six months after Steve Jobs confirmed it off on stage at Macworld 2007, and the Apple Watch was introduced within the fall of 2014, almost 9 months earlier than it went on sale in April 2015. Nonetheless, it’s truthful to say that unveiling a headset with a $3,000+ price ticket in the course of an financial downturn may be perceived as considerably “tone-deaf” on Apple’s half.
Kuo additionally notes that Apple has already made some compromises on issues like weight to get the headset into mass manufacturing extra shortly, and it’s additionally unclear whether or not it can have a big sufficient ecosystem of apps for the machine. It’s not in Apple’s tradition to current {hardware} for its personal sake — there needs to be a imaginative and prescient to go along with it, and satirically that’s very true for one thing like an AR/VR headset.
Nonetheless, that’s additionally primarily what WWDC is about — ramping up enthusiasm among the many developer neighborhood for Apple’s platforms. There’s possible no higher place to unveil its new “realityOS” frameworks. Nonetheless, it will likely be troublesome for builders to know these ideas except there’s a bodily machine they will wrap their heads round (or wrap round their heads, on this case). Primarily based on previous product releases, it’s additionally extremely possible Apple has already been working with a choose group of companions underneath strict non-disclosure agreements to construct the primary spherical of apps to showcase the brand new headset.
Since Kuo is an analyst and particularly writes for buyers, his newest notice is about revising the forecast on what number of headsets Apple is predicted to ship. Initially, he mentioned the market consensus was about 500,000 models, however the delays in mass manufacturing have dropped that estimate to round 200,000 to 300,000 models.
That also looks as if a reasonably optimistic estimate for a tool costing $3,000 at launch and will not have many helpful purposes. Nonetheless, Apple additionally has 30 million builders worldwide, a lot of which can choose one or two up for improvement functions, plus enterprise, schooling, and different company prospects who might discover sensible makes use of for the mixed-reality know-how, relying on what Apple’s builders do with it.
[The information provided in this article has NOT been confirmed by Apple and may be speculation. Provided details may not be factual. Take all rumors, tech or otherwise, with a grain of salt.]